Darren Waller Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Darren Waller

NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 11, 2022 12:15 AM UTC

Analysis

Darren Waller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 50.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a massive 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Las Vegas Raiders have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 45.8 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in football.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Darren Waller has notched quite a few less air yards this year (70.0 per game) than he did last year (86.0 per game).
Darren Waller's 42.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 56.6.
Darren Waller has been among the worst TEs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 20th percentile.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.05 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the NFL.

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