Darren Waller Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Darren Waller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 50.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 52.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 4th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to notch 8.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to be a more important option in his team's air attack this week (23.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (17.8% in games he has played).
Darren Waller has posted a monstrous 82.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
Darren Waller has been among the bottom TEs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 4.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 24th percentile.
The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 7th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 39.0) to TEs since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against tight ends since the start of last season, conceding 6.93 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in the NFL.