Darren Waller Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Tennessee Titans vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Darren Waller Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+171/-245).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +187 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +171.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.
Darren Waller has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 23.1% this year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among TEs.
Darren Waller has compiled a colossal 85.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among TEs.
Darren Waller's 55.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 99th percentile for tight ends.
Darren Waller's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% jumping from 57.5% to 71.5%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Las Vegas Raiders have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (66.1%) versus TEs since the start of last season (66.1%).
The Tennessee Titans defense has conceded the 3rd-least passing touchdowns in football to TEs: 0.21 per game since the start of last season.