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Darrell Henderson

Darrell Henderson Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 1

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills

Darrell Henderson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+421/-934).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -888 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -934.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

Darrell Henderson has rushed for 0.38 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among RBs (85th percentile).

Opposing offenses have rushed for the 5th-most TDs in the league (1.12 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.

The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects Darrell Henderson to be a much smaller part of his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (27.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (53.3% in games he has played).

The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 6th-best unit in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Los Angeles Rams have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.7% of the time since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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