Darrell Henderson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Darrell Henderson

RB · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 4, 2022 2:55 AM UTC

Analysis

Darrell Henderson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 4th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Darrell Henderson has totaled a whopping 4.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Darrell Henderson's sure-handedness have gotten better this year, with his Completion% jumping from 69.6% to 83.5%.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.59 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 57.2 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: least in the league.
Darrell Henderson's 9.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 15.8.