Darnell Mooney Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Darnell Mooney

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Darnell Mooney has run a route on 92.9% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Darnell Mooney to accrue 7.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Darnell Mooney's pass-catching performance worsened this season, averaging a measly 2.0 yards per game compared to 4.7 last season.

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