Darnell Mooney Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 5:00 PM UTC

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-145/+115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Darnell Mooney has run a route on 93.1% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
Darnell Mooney has been among the top pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 83rd percentile.
The Houston Texans safeties project as the worst safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.