Darnell Mooney Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 12:15 AM UTC

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+131/-176).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -151 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -176.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a big 10-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Darnell Mooney has run a route on 93.1% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Darnell Mooney to earn 7.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among wideouts.
Darnell Mooney has been among the leading WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 4.5 receptions per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (60.2%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (60.2%).
The Green Bay Packers linebackers project as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.