Darnell Mooney Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Darnell Mooney

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Darnell Mooney to garner 6.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 78th percentile among wideouts.
Darnell Mooney has been a key part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 27.9% this year, which ranks him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
Darnell Mooney's receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 59.7% to 69.5%.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 46.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
Darnell Mooney's receiving talent has diminished this season, compiling just 3.7 yards per game compared to 4.7 last season.

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