Darnell Mooney Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Darnell Mooney

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
Darnell Mooney has been a big part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 28.2% this year, which puts him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
Darnell Mooney's receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 59.7% to 67.0%.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in football (68.3%) versus wideouts this year (68.3%).
The Detroit Lions cornerbacks project as the worst collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 39.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.

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