Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Darnell Mooney

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 10, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-140/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Darnell Mooney's pass-catching effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, compiling 9.67 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a mere 8.24 rate last year.
With a fantastic 6.60 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (93rd percentile) this year, Darnell Mooney ranks as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers in football in space.
This year, the deficient Panthers defense has conceded the 9th-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wide receivers: a monstrous 4.58 YAC.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Carolina's CB corps has been lousy this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 47.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see only 125.5 total plays called: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Panthers, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 29.4 per game) this year.
Darnell Mooney's 80.8% Route% this year shows a significant decline in his passing offense utilization over last year's 92.8% figure.

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