Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Darnell Mooney

NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 13, 2022 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 47.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 46.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Darnell Mooney has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 25.6% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
Darnell Mooney's skills in grinding out extra yardage have improved this season, averaging 15.40 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 3.28 rate last season.
The Washington Commanders defense has conceded the 4th-most receiving yards per game in the league (184.0) to WRs this year.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has shown poor efficiency vs. WRs this year, conceding 10.23 yards-per-target to the position: the most in the NFL.
The Washington Commanders cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 45.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 49.2 plays per game.
Darnell Mooney has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (71.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).

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