Darnell Mooney Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Darnell Mooney

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:50 PM EST

Analysis

Darnell Mooney Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+286/-494).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -434 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -494.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Darnell Mooney has put up a monstrous 83.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile among wide receivers.
Darnell Mooney's 61.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 91st percentile for wideouts.
The Houston Texans safeties project as the worst safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in football.
Darnell Mooney has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league, completing a mere 58.9% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 16th percentile among wide receivers