Dante Pettis Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Dante Pettis

NFL · Player Props

Dante Pettis

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Dante Pettis Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-135/-101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in football.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has conceded the 5th-highest Completion% in the league (70.2%) versus wideouts this year (70.2%).
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.91 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
Dante Pettis has been much more involved in his team's offense this season, staying on the field for 52.7% of snaps compared to just 29.7% last season.
Dante Pettis has posted a paltry 15.0 air yards per game this year: just 25th percentile among WRs.

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