Daniel Jones Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Touchdowns

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Daniel Jones Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+525/-567).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest rate in football vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year (80.5% Adjusted Completion%).
As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Tennessee's group of CBs has been atrocious this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the Colts are overwhelmingly favored in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Colts to be the 4th-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 48.1% red zone run rate.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Titans defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.

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