Daniel Jones Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Touchdowns

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Daniel Jones Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+733/-770).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Colts being a -3-point underdog in this game.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most on the slate this week.
Since the start of last season, the porous Pittsburgh Steelers defense has conceded a monstrous 72.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-worst rate in the NFL.
As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Pittsburgh's group of LBs has been exceptional this year, grading out as the best in football.

Favors Under

The model projects the Colts to be the 6th-most run-oriented offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 47.7% red zone run rate.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense this year: fewest in football.
While Daniel Jones has been responsible for 4.5% of his offense's red zone run game usage in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Indianapolis's ground game near the goal line in this game at 15.4%.
Daniel Jones's throwing precision has worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 66.4% to 63.4%.

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