Daniel Jones Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Touchdowns

Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 7:42 PM EST

Analysis

Daniel Jones Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+424/-525).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Colts are expected by the model to run 64.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all air attack stats across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in the NFL against the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season (72.8% Adjusted Completion%).
The Washington Commanders defense has surrendered the most touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 2.20 per game since the start of last season.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Washington's unit has been very bad since the start of last season, grading out as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Colts being a 5-point favorite in this week's game.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Colts to pass on 53.5% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Colts to be the 6th-most run-oriented team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 46.9% red zone run rate.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 55.2 plays per game.
Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats reduced) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to expect some correction with windier weather in this game.