Daniel Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · Indianapolis Colts

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 5:07 PM EST

Analysis

Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-198/+178).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -225 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -198.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line implies an extreme throwing game script for the Colts, who are big -10-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 59.9% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.4 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 3rd-least pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (50.4% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Indianapolis Colts.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see only 126.4 offensive plays run: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) generally cause worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume.
Daniel Jones's 59.5% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a significant reduction in his throwing precision over last season's 66.4% mark.
Daniel Jones has been among the weakest touchdown throwers in the league this year, averaging a miserable 0.57 per game while ranking in the 3rd percentile.

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