Daniel Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · Indianapolis Colts

TD Passes

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-300/+210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -275 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +210.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Colts being a -3-point underdog in this game.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most on the slate this week.
Since the start of last season, the porous Pittsburgh Steelers defense has conceded a monstrous 72.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-worst rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The model projects the Colts to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 52.3% red zone pass rate.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense this year: fewest in football.
Daniel Jones's throwing precision has worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 66.4% to 63.4%.
With an atrocious ratio of only 0.75 per game (21st percentile), Daniel Jones rates among the worst touchdown throwers in the league this year.