Daniel Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · Indianapolis Colts

TD Passes

Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 7:42 PM EST

Analysis

Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+101/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Colts are expected by the model to run 64.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all air attack stats across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in the NFL against the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season (72.8% Adjusted Completion%).
The Washington Commanders defense has surrendered the most touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 2.20 per game since the start of last season.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Washington's unit has been very bad since the start of last season, grading out as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Colts being a 5-point favorite in this week's game.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Colts to pass on 53.5% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Right now, the 6th-least pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (53.1% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Indianapolis Colts.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 55.2 plays per game.
Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats reduced) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to expect some correction with windier weather in this game.