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Daniel Jones

Daniel Jones TD Passes
Player Prop Week 9

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders

Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+210/-290).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -275 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -290.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's line implies a throwing game script for the Giants, who are -4.5-point underdogs.

With a 60.3% rate of throwing the ball in the red zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in football in this setting has been the Giants.

The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the New York Giants this year (a staggering 61.4 per game on average).

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Commanders defense has allowed the 10th-most passing TDs in football: 1.50 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Giants are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 63.4 total plays in this contest: the 8th-lowest number among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects Daniel Jones to throw 33.4 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 10th-fewest among all QBs.

Opposing teams have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.

Daniel Jones's throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 66.3% to 63.0%.

Daniel Jones has been one of the weakest touchdown throwers in the NFL this year, averaging a paltry 0.75 per game while ranking in the 23rd percentile.

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