Daniel Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

TD Passes

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Giants · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-260/+210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -260 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +210.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the New York Giants this year (a massive 62.2 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This year, the shaky Raiders defense has yielded a staggering 76.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 4th-largest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the New York Giants to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the New York Giants to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 51.9% red zone pass rate.
The leading projections forecast the Giants to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The predictive model expects Daniel Jones to throw 31.9 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-fewest among all QBs.
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Las Vegas Raiders, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in football (just 34.4 per game) this year.

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