Daniel Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

TD Passes

Arizona Cardinals vs New York Giants · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 8:01 PM EST

Analysis

Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+128/-164).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +126 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 59.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Daniel Jones has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in football since the start of last season with an impressive 67.1% Completion%, ranking in the 90th percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in football versus the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season (73.3%).
The Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded the 3rd-most passing touchdowns in football: 1.67 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Giants are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 53.6% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to attempt 31.1 passes in this week's game, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.

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