Daniel Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

TD Passes

Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-225/+165).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a big 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.
The Green Bay Packers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The New York Giants have used play action on 28.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (10th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in football). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 6th-least pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 54.2% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to attempt 33.3 passes in this game, on average: the 9th-least of all QBs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 3rd-least in football.

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