Daniel Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

TD Passes

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-194).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +182 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Daniel Jones's passing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 64.6% to 67.9%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 57.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 50.1% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to attempt 36.0 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-least of all quarterbacks.
The New York Giants O-line grades out as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Daniel Jones has been among the bottom TD passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrible 0.94 per game while ranking in the 19th percentile.

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