Daniel Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

TD Passes

New York Giants vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+172/-225).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +172 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +172.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the 9th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Daniel Jones has been among the most accurate quarterbacks in football this year with a stellar 67.4% Completion%, checking in at the 88th percentile.
The New York Giants have used play action on 28.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-most in football), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Giants are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 52.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 49.7% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to attempt 31.5 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-least of all QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 7th-least in the league.

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