Daniel Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

TD Passes

New York Giants vs Detroit Lions · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 3:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+180/-235).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -215 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -235.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.1 plays per game.
Daniel Jones has been among the most on-target passers in the league this year with a terrific 66.7% Completion%, checking in at the 76th percentile.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 7th-highest clip in football vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year (73.5%).
The Detroit Lions defense has conceded the 7th-most passing touchdowns in football: 1.67 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Giants are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 46.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 5th-least pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 50.7% red zone pass rate.
The weather forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to attempt 28.3 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.

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