Daniel Jones Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

Rushing TD

Seattle Seahawks vs New York Giants · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+208/-315).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +222 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +208.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 5th-most run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 47.8% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 61.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Jones to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (27.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (15.4% in games he has played).
Daniel Jones has run for 0.43 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in football among quarterbacks (94th percentile).

Favors Under

The Giants are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have used motion in their offense on 26.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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