Daniel Jones Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Daniel Jones

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · New York Giants

Rushing TD

Tennessee Titans vs New York Giants · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Jones Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+373/-759).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +435 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +373.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Daniel Jones isn't afraid to take off running near the end zone, accounting for 25.6% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries since the start of last season (95th percentile among QBs).
Daniel Jones has run for 0.18 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest marks in the league among QBs (82nd percentile).
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Giants are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Giants have been the 2nd-least run-heavy offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 31.8% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have run the 10th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.9 plays per game.
The New York Giants O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.

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