Daniel Jones Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Daniel Jones

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Passing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 7:42 PM EST

Analysis

Daniel Jones Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 219.5 (+100/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 229.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 219.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Colts are expected by the model to run 64.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all air attack stats across the board.
Since the start of last season, the feeble Washington Commanders defense has allowed a massive 258.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing QBs: the worst in the NFL.
Since the start of last season, the shaky Washington Commanders defense has given up the most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to the opposing side: a monstrous 9.14 yards.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Washington's unit has been very bad since the start of last season, grading out as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Colts being a 5-point favorite in this week's game.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Colts to pass on 53.5% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 55.2 plays per game.
Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats reduced) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to expect some correction with windier weather in this game.
The predictive model expects Daniel Jones to throw 32.3 passes in this contest, on balance: the 7th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.