Daniel Bellinger Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Daniel Bellinger

TE · New York Giants

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Giants · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Bellinger Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+155/-185).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -185.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the New York Giants this year (a massive 62.2 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In this week's contest, Daniel Bellinger is projected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.1 targets.
While Daniel Bellinger has received 2.3% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of New York's offense in this week's game at 13.2%.
This year, the shaky Raiders pass defense has been gouged for a massive 79.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 6th-highest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the New York Giants to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Giants to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Las Vegas Raiders, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in football (just 34.4 per game) this year.
The Giants offensive line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Daniel Bellinger's 0.8 adjusted receptions per game this season signifies a significant reduction in his pass-catching skills over last season's 2.7 mark.