Daniel Bellinger Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Daniel Bellinger

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Bellinger

TE · New York Giants

Receptions

New York Giants vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 3, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Bellinger Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-160/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +135 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) typically prompt better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
Daniel Bellinger has been among the most reliable receivers in the league among tight ends, hauling in a stellar 91.7% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 100th percentile.
The Seahawks safeties profile as the worst safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New York Giants to pass on 56.3% of their plays: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The projections expect this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Daniel Bellinger has been less involved as a potential target this year (28.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (65.9%).
The Giants offensive line ranks as the worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Seahawks pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (69.3%) to TEs since the start of last season (69.3%).

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