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Daniel Bellinger

Daniel Bellinger Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Atlanta Falcons vs New York Giants

Daniel Bellinger Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-125/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -109.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Giants will be forced to start backup QB Drew Lock in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The Giants are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

The leading projections forecast the Giants to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The New York Giants have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 60.5 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New York Giants are anticipated by the predictive model to run only 64.7 total plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest on the slate this week.

The New York Giants offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Daniel Bellinger's 3.36 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects a substantial regression in his efficiency in space over last year's 5.3% figure.

The Falcons pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.6%) vs. TEs this year (69.6%).

As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Atlanta's safety corps has been terrific this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the NFL.

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