Daniel Bellinger Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Daniel Bellinger

TE · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Green Bay Packers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Bellinger Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is implied by the Giants being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
The predictive model expects Daniel Bellinger to be a much bigger part of his team's passing game in this contest (11.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.7% in games he has played).
Daniel Bellinger grades out as one of the most efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging a remarkable 9.00 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 81st percentile.
This year, the porous Green Bay Packers defense has given up the most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a staggering 8.76 yards.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has struggled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.58 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-most in football.

Favors Under

The projections expect the New York Giants to be the least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.8 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game against the Packers defense this year: fewest in football.
After averaging 12.0 air yards per game last season, Daniel Bellinger has posted significant losses this season, now averaging 5.0 per game.
When talking about pocket protection (and the significance it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the New York Giants grades out as the worst in the league this year.