Daniel Bellinger Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Daniel Bellinger

TE · New York Giants

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Bellinger Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+356/-701).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -670 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -701.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 10th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.91 seconds per play.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties project as the 7th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have incorporated play action on 28.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The New York Giants O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (65.3%) to tight ends this year (65.3%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has yielded the 7th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to tight ends: 0.17 per game this year.
The New York Giants O-line has afforded their QB just 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.