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Daniel Bellinger

Daniel Bellinger Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 7

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants

Daniel Bellinger Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+356/-701).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -670 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -701.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Giants are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 10th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.91 seconds per play.

The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties project as the 7th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The New York Giants have incorporated play action on 28.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

The New York Giants O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (65.3%) to tight ends this year (65.3%).

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has yielded the 7th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to tight ends: 0.17 per game this year.

The New York Giants O-line has afforded their QB just 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

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