D'Andre Swift Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Chicago Bears

Touchdowns

Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 6, 2026 6:13 PM EST

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-178/+160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 66.1 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 10th-most in football.
While D'Andre Swift has been responsible for 4.3% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more integral piece of Chicago's passing offense near the end zone in this week's contest at 9.9%.
D'Andre Swift's 82.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this season signifies a noteable boost in his pass-catching ability over last season's 74.8% figure.
Opposing squads have rushed for the fewest TDs in the league (0.38 per game) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 6 points.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bears to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Right now, the 4th-most run-centric offense in football near the end zone (48.1% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Chicago Bears.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
While D'Andre Swift has garnered 50.0% of his offense's red zone carries in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in Chicago's running game near the goal line in this contest at 61.2%.

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