D'Andre Swift Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Chicago Bears

Touchdowns

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 17, 2026 7:52 PM EST

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-147/+144).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see 135.2 plays on offense called: the most on the slate this week.
The Bears have run the most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 67.2 plays per game.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing offenses to attempt the most passes in the NFL (45.8 per game) this year.
D'Andre Swift's 14.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in football: 82nd percentile for RBs.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to be the 9th-most run-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 46.6% red zone run rate.
Among all running backs, D'Andre Swift ranks in the 81st percentile for red zone carries this year, comprising 45.7% of the volume in his team's ground game near the goal line.
D'Andre Swift has totaled a mere -4.0 air yards per game this year: just 19th percentile among running backs.
The receiving TD line reads "0" on the back of D'Andre Swift's trading card this year.
D'Andre Swift has rushed for 0.80 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the league among running backs (93rd percentile).

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