D'Andre Swift Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Chicago Bears

Touchdowns

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-148/+124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears may take to the air less in this game (and call more rushes) given that they be forced to start backup QB Tyson Bagent.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chicago Bears are anticipated by the projection model to call 67.4 plays on offense in this contest: the highest number on the slate this week.
The Bears have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 68.5 plays per game.
While D'Andre Swift has earned 3.4% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Chicago's passing attack near the end zone in this contest at 8.5%.
D'Andre Swift's 84.9% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a noteworthy improvement in his receiving skills over last year's 74.8% rate.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 6th-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (47.7% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chicago Bears.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Packers defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
The predictive model expects D'Andre Swift to be a much smaller piece of his team's ground game near the goal line this week (45.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (56.0% in games he has played).
When it comes to air yards, D'Andre Swift grades out in the lowly 20th percentile among RBs this year, totaling just -5.0 per game.
D'Andre Swift grades out in the 1st percentile among RBs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.