D'Andre Swift Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+102/-106).
Key Factors
Favors Over
The Chicago Bears may throw the ball less in this week's game (and hand the ball off more) given that they be rolling out backup QB Tyson Bagent.
The most plays in football have been run by the Bears since the start of last season (a colossal 61.2 per game on average).
D'Andre Swift's 13.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 77th percentile for RBs.
The Chicago O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
D'Andre Swift's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 74.8% to 83.6%.
Favors Under
A running game script is implied by the Bears being a 3.5-point favorite this week.
The model projects the Bears as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 6th-most run-focused team in the NFL in the red zone (46.9% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Bears.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
D'Andre Swift has been given 56.0% of his offense's red zone carries this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among RBs.