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D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (-120/-108).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 56.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 61.5 @ -120.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Chicago Bears have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a massive 59.0 plays per game.Our trusted projections expect D'Andre Swift to notch 15.9 carries in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs.D'Andre Swift has been given 58.0% of his offense's run game usage this year, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.With an exceptional record of 54.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (76th percentile), D'Andre Swift rates as one of the top running backs in the league this year.This year, the fierce Commanders run defense has surrendered a feeble 4.97 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's running game: the 26th-lowest rate in the NFL.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 38.1% rate of rushing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 10th-least run-oriented offense in the league has been the Bears.Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Chicago Bears are forecasted by the model to run just 62.8 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being called for in this game) typically cause better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.D'Andre Swift's running efficiency has declined this year, totaling just 3.54 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.34 rate last year.With an atrocious rate of 2.10 yards after contact (2nd percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift ranks as one of the least formidable RBs in football.
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