D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

reorder

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-148/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 4th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 47.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.6 plays per game.
The Philadelphia Eagles have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots defense has had the 4th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, conceding just 4.16 yards-per-carry.
The New England Patriots safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The Philadelphia Eagles have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles have utilized motion in their offense on 28.1% of their play-calls since the start of last season (least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.