D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:31 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 10th-most run-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 40.7% run rate.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
D'Andre Swift has rushed for many more yards per game (56.0) this year than he did last year (44.0).
D'Andre Swift's ground effectiveness has been refined this year, accumulating 6.94 yards-per-carry compared to just 3.75 rate last year.
D'Andre Swift has been more successful in grinding out extra rushing yardage this season, averaging 4.12 yards-after-contact compared to a 2.40 mark last season.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to be a much smaller part of his team's rushing attack this week (17.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (34.0% in games he has played).

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