D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (+113/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 59.5 @ -132 before it was bet down to 48.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-most run-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 42.4% run rate.
The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season, averaging 25.27 seconds per snap.
D'Andre Swift has averaged 50.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the NFL among running backs (82nd percentile).
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to be a much smaller part of his team's rushing attack this week (30.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (50.8% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders defensive ends rank as the 5th-best group of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

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