D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (+103/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ +103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year at run-game blocking.
D'Andre Swift's rushing efficiency has improved this season, totaling 5.66 yards-per-carry vs just 3.76 mark last season.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 10th-most yards in the league (134 per game) vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year.
The Detroit Lions have risked going for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
D'Andre Swift has been a much smaller piece of his team's running game this season (25.6% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (50.3%).
The Carolina Panthers linebackers rank as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year with their run defense.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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