D'Andre Swift Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:25 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+200/-280).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 10th-most run-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 43.7% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.55 seconds per snap.
D'Andre Swift has run for 0.40 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest figures in football among running backs (86th percentile).
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the best unit in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

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