D'Andre Swift Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing TD

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+259/-440).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +358 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +259.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions have been the 9th-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 49.0% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to be a more important option in his team's running game near the goal line this week (45.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (26.8% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
D'Andre Swift has run for 0.40 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the league among RBs (84th percentile).

Favors Under

The New York Jets defensive tackles grade out as the 6th-best DT corps in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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