D'Andre Swift Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 6, 2026 8:38 PM EST

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-138/+122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -163 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears have run the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 66.1 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 10th-most in football.
The projections expect D'Andre Swift to accrue 3.9 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs.
With an extraordinary 11.6% Target% (90th percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift stands among the RB receiving threats with the highest volume in the league.
D'Andre Swift's play as a receiver has been refined this year, compiling 3.0 adjusted receptions vs a measly 1.8 last year.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 6 points.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bears to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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