D'Andre Swift Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles as the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.40 seconds per snap.
The projections expect D'Andre Swift to accrue 3.4 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year.
With an excellent 3.0 adjusted catches per game (89th percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift places as one of the top pass-catching RBs in the league.
D'Andre Swift's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 75.9% to 88.1%.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 52.1% of their plays: the 4th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the New York Jets, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 34.6 per game) this year.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decline in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, D'Andre Swift has been used much less in his offense's passing attack.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New York's collection of LBs has been fantastic this year, grading out as the best in football.