D'Andre Swift Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 4:06 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-129/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Eagles as the 7th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.63 seconds per play.
D'Andre Swift has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 13.4% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs.
The Eagles O-line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
D'Andre Swift has been among the top pass-catching RBs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 3.1 receptions per game while checking in at the 90th percentile.
As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Washington's unit has been terrible since the start of last season, projecting as the 6th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Eagles are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 4th-fewest in the NFL.
D'Andre Swift's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 75.9% to 80.0%.