D'Andre Swift Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+102/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.55 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
D'Andre Swift has run a route on 64.9% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 7th-least pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.7% pass rate.
D'Andre Swift's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 81.4% to 59.0%.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (75.3%) versus running backs since the start of last season (75.3%).
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the 8th-best safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

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